Modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under limited resources

Abstract

Since the novel corona virus has been identified, the virus has rapidly spread to more than 200 countries. In Indonesia, as of 25 August, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases is 157,859 and there has been an increasing trend in the number of new cases. Therefore, it is urgently needed to study the disease transmission dynamics and the efficacy of its intervention strategies. In this paper, a compartment-based mathematical model has been formulated to study the COVID-19 disease transmission dynamics under limited resources. The model has been validated against data of Bali Province, Indonesia. We analyze the three different scenarios, which are 15%, 35% and 60% budget reduction. An optimal control approach has been used to examine the effects of control strategies and limited budget on the disease transmission dynamics. We found that the control strategy to detect COVID-19 infections in the population is crucial to reduce the number of infections. The results are corroborated by the results of sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a higher reduction in the alloted budget would contribute to an increase in the number of COVID-19 infections.