Mathematical modeling of human–rodent monkeypox infectious disease using a hierarchical approach

Abstract

Monkeypox is a resurging zoonotic disease in Nigeria, posing increasing public health concerns. To capture its transmission dynamics, this study develops a hierarchical human–rodent model. Biological validity is ensured by proving the positivity of solutions and identifying an invariant region. Epidemic threshold analysis is conducted through the derivation of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). The model combines theoretical analysis and numerical simulation in a hierarchical framework. Using the adaptive fourth–fifth order Runge–Kutta method (RK45), the nonlinear system is solved to investigate epidemic trajectories in Nigeria under realistic demographic and epidemiological settings. Results highlight the sensitivity of epidemic waves to transmission parameters and emphasize the role of rodent reservoirs in sustaining outbreaks. The study provides computational and analytical insights that may inform public health interventions to control monkeypox spread.