Optimal control strategies of multistrain infectious disease with limited vaccination and treatment capacity

Abstract

In this paper, the multistrain SVEIR model is considered which represents the evolution of susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals. Based on this model, the stability properties of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained. Furthermore, the model was expanded by applying optimal control theory with limited vaccination and treatment capacity presented in four strategies. We used COVID-19 a case study, based on the order of the first and second strains representing milder and more severe symptoms. Numerical results show that the fourth strategy produces endemic spike peaks that occur much lower, which means this strategy is capable and quite effective. However, based on cost effectiveness analysis using the Average Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ACER) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) methods in decision making, the first strategy is optimal and cost effective.